The crypto market is gearing up for massive volatility as key macroeconomic events are scheduled today. While the morning kicks off with the US jobs report and non-farm payrolls, the day’s biggest event is expected in the evening.
The jobs report is likely to reveal a cooling and resilient labour market, which could effectively be a positive catalyst for the crypto market. On the other side, the Supreme Court’s critical decision on Trump tariffs in the evening is poised to trigger a wild ride.
This article explains why the crypto market is expected to see volatility today amid key events.
Why is the Crypto Market on Edge Today?
As noted by analyst Ted in a Twitter thread, today is a huge day for the crypto market. This is due to two major events that are expected to occur soon.
US Jobs Report
Notably, the US jobs report is slated to be released on Friday, at 8:00 am ET. According to economists’ predictions, the US Bureau of Labour Statistics’ report is likely to reveal a cooling labour market. The job growth is expected to slow compared to the previous month’s data.
Economists project the US economy’s possible addition of 73,000 jobs in December. At the same time, the unemployment rate is predicted to fall slightly from 4.6% in November to 4.5%.
The latest ADP report revealed that private-sector payrolls surged by 41,000 in December. This marks a recovery from a 29,000-drop last month. Another positive sign is the Employment Index in the ISM Services PMI. It rose to 52, moving back into the expansion territory after remaining below the 50 mark for six straight months.
Considering these calculations, the crypto market is poised for a massive bull run. If the labour market is cooling as expected, it could lead to the Federal Reserve’s decision to loosen its monetary policy. If the Fed rate cut is anticipated, the crypto market is set for another major uptrend. Commenting on the employment report, analysts noted,
“We look for job gains to stabilize at around the 50k mark over the last two months, with private payrolls printing a 50k gain in December as the government likely shed 10k jobs over the same period. We also expect the unemployment rate to normalize to 4.5% after seeing a shutdown-driven jump to 4.6% in November. Avg. hourly earnings likely rose 0.3% m/m and 3.6% y/y.”
Trump Tariff Ruling
Today’s biggest event is the Supreme Court ruling on US President Donald Trump’s tariff policies. The Supreme Court calendar shows Friday as an opinion day, where the judge is expected to rule against the Trump tariffs.
As the court has already hinted at its opposition to the trade tax policy, the possibility of the judge ruling it illegal is high. Experts like Wimar.X calls today the worst day for the crypto market, driven by the looming court ruling. He noted,
“Trump is saying tariffs brought in around $600 BILLION. So if the court nukes the tariffs, the market instantly starts asking one thing. How much gets refunded, and how fast. That’s not “clarity”. That’s CHAOS. Refund fights. A giant revenue hole. Emergency new tariffs. Retaliation risk. And markets reprice all of it at once.”
If the court rules against the tariffs, the US government will have to refund the massive $600 billion already amassed. This could spark a huge wave of volatility and downturn across markets, including stocks, crypto, and bonds. As per experts, this could lead to ultimate chaos.
