What To Know:
- VanEck’s latest report argues that clearer fiscal and monetary signals are supporting selective risk-taking across crypto, AI, private credit, and gold.
- A break in Bitcoin’s four-year cycle in 2025 clouds short-term signals, prompting near-term caution.
- Historical data shows falling hash rates have often aligned with stronger medium-term Bitcoin returns.
VanEck has released a report for 2026, arguing that clearer fiscal and monetary policy signals are reshaping the cryptocurrency investment domain after several years of uncertainty. In its latest assessment, the asset manager points to a market environment that is gradually becoming more supportive of risk assets, including crypto, Artificial Intelligence-related investments, private credit, and gold.
VanEck Predicts Crypto Investment Trends 2026
According to the firm, this year may offer investors something that has been largely absent since the pandemic era began: predictability. With inflation trajectories, interest rate policy, and government spending plans becoming more transparent, investors are better positioned to make forward-looking allocation decisions. VanEck describes this clarity as a main factor driving renewed appetite for selective risk-taking, while still stressing the importance of disciplined asset selection.
Crypto assets feature prominently in this outlook, though not without caveats. VanEck notes that Bitcoin’s historical four-year cycle, long relied upon by market participants as a reference point, showed signs of disruption in 2025. That deviation has complicated short-term market signals and has led the firm to adopt a more measured stance over the next three to six months. Short-term volatility, the report suggests, remains a possibility even as longer-term fundamentals continue to attract institutional attention.
This cautious view, however, is not uniform across the firm. VanEck executives Matthew Sigel and David Schassler are described as holding a more constructive perspective on Bitcoin’s near-term trajectory.
As the following discussions on the cyclical cycle’s potential, they are also addressing an ongoing internal debate about how the cycle is likely to play out during evolving macroeconomic conditions. Furthermore, VanEck sees 2026 offering more attractive access points within several asset classes as policy uncertainty eases.
Capital is gradually being pulled in by AI as it becomes more prevalent in all sorts of sectors as it continues to attract capital, and private credit spreads expand amid reconfiguring of the lending landscape. Gold, generally regarded as a hedge against instability, is also well placed to benefit as investors re-price their portfolios following macro signals. Crypto assets fit in with these themes as part of a broader risk-on approach formed by policy visibility. Bitcoin is presently trading at $91,883.18 and having a market capitalization of approximately US$1.835 trillion. The asset has a dominant position of 57.1%, based on market data.
Daily trading has reached nearly $45 billion, and prices in the market fell 0.5 percent within the past 24 hours. The numbers represent a vibrant market still searching for direction amid mixed short-term signals. Beyond price action, VanEck’s report also addresses structural concerns within the Bitcoin network, particularly trends related to mining and hash rate behavior.
The firm acknowledges that sustained declines in hash rate often raise concerns among market participants. A weakening mining sector could place pressure on network security perceptions and miner profitability, potentially triggering selling activity and reinforcing negative price momentum.
At the same time, historical data presents a more nuanced picture. VanEck’s analysis of Bitcoin performance since 2014 shows that periods of declining hash rate have frequently coincided with stronger forward returns. Over 90-day windows where hash rate growth turned negative, Bitcoin’s 180-day forward returns were positive 77% of the time, with average gains of roughly 72%. During periods without hash rate contraction, positive forward returns occurred around 61% of the time, with average gains closer to 48 percent.
The data suggests that prolonged hash rate compression has historically aligned with stronger medium-term performance. VanEck notes that purchasing Bitcoin during periods of negative 90-day hash rate growth has improved 180-day forward returns by approx 2,400 basis points compared to buying without regard to hash rate trends.
Also Read: VanEck: Recent Bitcoin Miner Slowdown May Signal Market Recoveries
