What To Know:
- Polymarket pricing shows a 66% probability of Bitcoin dropping to $50,000 this year, while odds of a rebound to $80,000 and $90,000 remain elevated.
- On-chain data from CryptoQuant suggests the market sits between a mid-cycle correction and a deeper reset, with no clear structural bottom yet.
- Macro pressure, cautious outlooks from firms like Standard Chartered, and a large options expiry on Deribit continue to keep volatility risks high.
The prediction market platform, Polymarket, is showing a sharp rise in bearish expectations for Bitcoin this year. Odds of Bitcoin falling to $50,000 in 2026 are now at a probability of 66%. The same platform places the odds of a rebound to $80,000 at 68%, while the chance of a move to $90,000 stands at 52%.
Bitcoin Price Movement: Downside Risk or Recovery
Bitcoin was trading at $66,345.42 at the time of writing, down about 1% over the previous 24 hours. Price action stabilized during Asian trading hours on Friday after a volatile session in the United States. Earlier in New York trading, Bitcoin slid roughly 4% to $65,118, marking its lowest level of the week.
In its latest research note, Standard Chartered said Bitcoin could see a near-term bounce before dropping toward $50,000. The bank also hinted that its longer-term price target of $100,000 could be revised lower depending on macroeconomic developments and market conditions. The tone from traditional finance institutions has remained guarded as several firms hint at the potential for extended downside.
On-chain data metrics tracked by CryptoQuant show signals that do not yet look like a full market reset. Long-term holder capitulation, Market Value to Realized Value, Net Unrealized Profit and Loss, and the share of supply in profit are all hovering between mid-cycle correction levels and those typically associated with bear market bottoms.
CryptoQuant noted that realized losses have risen sharply in recent days, but not to levels that historically marked structural bottoms. Bitcoin holders realized $5.4 billion in daily losses on Feb. 5, the largest figure since March 2023 and higher than the period following the FTX collapse. Monthly cumulative losses measured in Bitcoin terms remain far below those seen during late 2022, with roughly 0.3 million BTC realized compared with about 1.1 million BTC during that earlier capitulation phase. The firm said this suggests the market has not yet undergone a full washout.
Other indicators tell a similar story. MVRV has not entered the extreme undervalued zone. NUPL has not reached the roughly 20% unrealized loss area often associated with cyclical lows. Around 55% of the circulating supply remains in profit, compared with the 45% to 50% range observed at previous bottoms. These figures support the view that the current phase is transitional, with uncertainty dominating investor behavior.
Macro conditions continue to weigh on sentiment. Following a stronger-than-expected US jobs report, traders are waiting for January inflation data, which was delayed due to a partial government shutdown. A higher-than-expected inflation print could reinforce expectations of tighter monetary policy for longer, and increase pressure on risk assets including Bitcoin.
At the same time, derivatives markets point to potential short-term volatility. Data from Deribit shows that $2.5 billion worth of Bitcoin options are set to expire at 8:00 a.m. UTC on Feb. 13. The put-to-call ratio stands at 0.72, indicating a higher number of call contracts than puts. The max pain level is $74,000, the price at which the greatest number of options would expire worthless. As expiry approaches, market makers often adjust hedges in spot and futures markets, which can amplify price swings in either direction.
The Crypto Fear and Greed Index dropped to 8 on Feb. 13, a level associated with extreme fear and, at times, seller exhaustion. Some analysts view such readings as a sign that much of the selling pressure may already be reflected in prices.
Also Read: Will Bitcoin Price Surge Again? Key Levels to Watch
