Binance Alpha Data Suggests Altcoin Gains Are Structural

For weeks, crypto circles have been buzzing about a possible “altcoin season.” Many traders have pointed to rising prices in smaller tokens as proof that a broad rally is underway.

An in-depth analysis at 335 tokens on Binance Alpha suggests that the “altcoin season” may be more hype than real. The data shows that instead of a bull run across the whole market, we’re seeing structural patterns where only some types of tokens do well and others don’t.

The Pump Effect After Listing

The study shows that tokens often enjoy a “pump effect” right after listing. On average, new tokens rise about 74.6% shortly after launch and hit an average peak of 190%.

But these numbers don’t hold up for the long run. Today, only 43.5% of tokens are still trading higher than launch, while 24% have already lost half their value. MYX is the best example, with an amazing 123x return. Based on recent trends, the average price went up by only 7.8% in the past week, and only five tokens were able to double in value. This shows that the current momentum is not a broad rally, but rather a selective one.

Futures vs. Spot: A Key Difference

One of the most important things the report says is that the type of trading pair is very important. Only 8.3% of Alpha tokens are available for spot trading; the rest are linked to futures trading. The performance gap is striking, Futures-only tokens gained an average of 230%, peaking at 355%. Tokens without futures listings actually declined on average over the past week.

The blockchain a token is launched on also makes a difference. Among the Alpha tokens studied, BSC leads with an average 101% increase, Solana price rose by about 37%, Ethereum tokens climbed 33.4% and Base tokens lagged with only 26% growth. BSC clearly has the edge, with far more tokens delivering stronger returns.

Airdrops Results

Airdrops are usually fun for traders, but the data shows that they haven’t been doing well. The average increase for the 144 tokens given out through Alpha airdrops was only 29%, which is much lower than the overall average.

Airdropped tokens still didn’t do as well as futures-only tokens, even when they were paired with futures listings. The likely reason is that airdrops flood the market with cheap tokens, which makes people want to sell them.

The Winning Formula

So, what type of tokens have done the best? The analysis highlights a clear pattern:

• Tokens listed only on futures

• Not listed on spot markets

• Issued on BSC

• Without airdrops

This small group of 26 tokens has seen an average increase of 620%, with some spiking up to 764%. Even in the past week, they’ve gained 54%.

What This Really Means

The results show that what a lot of people are calling “altcoin season” is really a structural market divergence. Some tokens do well because of where and how they are launched, while others don’t last long.

This means that traders and investors shouldn’t just follow the “season” story without thinking about it. Instead, knowing how things work, like futures attributes, blockchain choice, and token distribution, can help you find better chances. It’s also important to remember that these results are based on past data and come with risks. The patterns in the markets don’t always stay the same.

Final Thoughts

There may be a lot of talk about an altcoin season, but the truth is more complicated. According to the data, the gains of today are not widespread. They are mostly in certain types of tokens that are affected by futures trading, blockchain choice, and tokenomics. Investors may find that being patient, DYOR, and being careful are more important than following the season’s excitement.

Also Read: Decoding Pump.fun’s 30% Rally: Will The Trend Sustain?