What To Know:
- Ex-Ripple CTO David Schwartz said current XRP prices indicate that most investors do not believe there is a meaningful chance of the token reaching $100 in the near future.
- He argued that if rational market participants truly expected such upside, strong buying pressure would have pushed XRP well above current levels.
- Schwartz added that while crypto markets can defy expectations, prices usually reflect realistic probability assessments rather than social media speculation.
Former chief technology officer at Ripple David “JoelKatz” Schwartz has pushed back against persistent claims that $XRP is destined for $100 in the near future. Schwartz provided a market-based reason in a post on X why price targets, like $50 or $100, remain largely unsupported by current trading behavior. His remarks came in as speculation around XRP grew across crypto twitter, where XRP loyalists share bold predictions even with limited structural evidence.
Ex-Ripple on $100 XRP Narrative
Asset prices, as Schwartz explains, typically reflect how much conviction buyers are willing to convey with actual capital. If a large segment of rational investors believed XRP had even a modest chance of reaching $100 within a few years, current prices would already look very different.
But I will say this:
If many rational people believed that there was a 10% chance that XRP hit $100 within a few years, they definitely wouldn’t sell very much today at much less than $10. Those with that belief would quickly buy up most of the XRP, because they’d value it more…
— David ‘JoelKatz’ Schwartz (@JoelKatz) January 29, 2026
“If many rational people believed that there was a 10% chance that XRP hit $100 within a few years, they definitely wouldn’t sell very much today at much less than $10,” Schwartz wrote.
He added that investors holding such beliefs would aggressively accumulate tokens at lower levels, gradually removing cheap supply from the market. In that scenario, XRP would struggle to trade far below those perceived valuations.
The fact that this has not occurred, he argued, speaks volumes.
“That the current trading price is well below $10 shows that there aren’t very many people who really think it has a 10% chance of hitting $100 within a few years with enough confidence to put their money where their mouth is,” Schwartz stated. “So anyone who says otherwise is not telling the truth.”
XRP is now around $1.76, which is roughly 52 percent less than its all-time high hit about seven months ago. Although interest has renewed following Ripple’s partial legal clarity in the US, the current price momentum has remained softer on the market than speculation online. Schwartz’s remarks directly counter historical stories promoted by influencers who have forecast valuations of $589, 1,000 or more. More of those assertions depend on theoretical models, based on assumptions around global liquidity or payment volume, than observed market demand.
His post also addressed a common argument surrounding XRP’s utility as a bridge asset for cross-border payments.
Schwartz explained that from a pure transaction perspective, price alone does not determine whether XRP would be used as an intermediary currency. Liquidity plays a far greater role. Institutions converting dollars to euros, for example, care primarily about depth and reliability in markets rather than headline price levels.
Even so, he avoided making absolute claims.
“I don’t feel comfortable saying something like that,” Schwartz wrote, referring to definitive price predictions. “While I don’t think it’s likely, I didn’t think it was likely that XRP would ever hit $0.25.”
He acknowledged his own history of misjudging crypto markets. Schwartz recalled selling XRP at $0.10 because the valuation appeared unreasonable at the time. He also pointed to early Bitcoin skepticism, when a $100 price once seemed unattainable.
Those experiences, he noted, serve as reminders that digital asset markets often react to external forces that cannot be modeled in advance.
“My personal belief is that most cryptocurrency prices are in fact rational most of the time and actually reflect a reasonable analysis of their potential future prices and the probabilities associated with them,” Schwartz said. “Most significant crypto bull runs were due to unpredictable external changes.”
Rather than dismissing the possibility of extreme outcomes, Schwartz emphasized probability. Markets, in his view, weigh future scenarios continuously. Prices move when conviction increases, not when speculation spreads.
His stance highlights a widening gap between online narratives and capital behavior. While social media discussions frequently promote aggressive upside targets, trading data suggests that most participants remain unconvinced of dramatic near-term appreciation.
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