Arthur Hayes posted on X today, August 25, 2026 and said that his over-the-counter trading brokers have started contacting his team about borrowing dollars, which he views as a possible sign that the crypto basis trade is returning. Hayes said borrowing rates are still too low for the strategy to become more attractive, but he sees the renewed inquiries as a positive indicator. He also pointed to Ethena’s ENA token as a potential beneficiary if basis trading activity picks up.
Our OTC brokers starting to msg us about borrowing dollars. The rates are still way to low, but a good sign that the basis trade is coming back. $ENA will benefit uniquely. It has a lot of ground to cover on the upside. PIC.TWITTER.COM/TL0WQP4DX3
— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) AUGUST 25, 2026
The comments come as Hayes continues to argue that changes in Treasury-market policy and dollar liquidity could influence crypto markets. In a separate essay, he linked recent Treasury actions under U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to the liquidity conditions that he believes helped Bitcoin and other risk assets in the past. Hayes’ comments, however, represent his interpretation of current market conditions rather than confirmation that the basis trade has returned.
Hayes Points to Dollar-Borrowing Demand as Basis Trade Signal
Arthur Hayes said on X that his OTC brokers had started messaging his team about borrowing dollars. He said the rates were still too low, but viewed the renewed interest as a positive sign that the basis trade could be returning.
The basis trade generally involves taking offsetting positions in spot and derivatives markets to capture a difference between their prices. In crypto markets, traders can buy an asset in the spot market while taking a short position in a related futures contract. The potential return depends on the spread between those positions and the costs involved.
This connection helps explain why Hayes singled out ENA in his comments. He said the token would “benefit uniquely” if the basis trade returned and added that it had room to move higher. Those are Hayes’ own views, rather than a statement that ENA will necessarily rise.
The distinction is important because Hayes also acknowledged that current borrowing rates are not yet attractive enough. In other words, the activity he described is an early indication he believes could develop into something larger, rather than evidence that the strategy is already operating at previous levels.
The comments also connect to Ethena’s business model, which uses derivatives positions as part of the structure behind USDe. This makes changes in funding rates, borrowing conditions and demand for leveraged trading relevant to the economics surrounding the protocol.
However, the dollar-borrowing inquiries described by Hayes do not by themselves confirm that market conditions have shifted or that ENA will benefit. The main development is Hayes’ observation that his brokers are receiving more inquiries about dollar borrowing. His interpretation is that this could indicate renewed interest in basis trading, with ENA potentially benefiting if that activity develops further.
Arthur Hayes Links Treasury Liquidity to Broader Crypto Market Outlook
Arthur Hayes’ view on the basis trade fits into a wider argument he made in his essay “Same Same But Different”. He said the essay examines how Treasury-market actions under Janet Yellen and Bessent could affect dollar liquidity and, in turn, crypto markets.
In the essay, Arthur Hayes compares late-2023 Treasury issuance under Yellen with Bessent’s more recent use of Treasury buybacks. He argues that shifting the mix of Treasury bills and longer-dated debt can influence where liquidity moves through financial markets.
He also focuses on the 10-year Treasury yield and argues that policymakers have an incentive to keep borrowing costs from rising too far. These points are part of Arthur Hayes’ market thesis rather than conclusions established by the post itself.
Arthur Hayes points to Treasury buybacks announced by Bessent on August 19 as a recent example. He argues that the initial decline in 10-year yields was followed by a reversal and says the relatively limited size of the buyback was one reason the effect did not last.
His broader argument is that further measures to support Treasury markets could increase dollar liquidity and create more favorable conditions for Bitcoin and other crypto assets. He also outlines several possible paths for future Treasury policy, including larger buybacks and other measures that could affect liquidity.
For Ethena, the connection is more specific. The protocol’s USDe model depends in part on conditions in crypto derivatives markets, where funding rates and hedging costs affect the economics of its positions. Whether the borrowing activity Hayes described develops into a broader return of basis trading will depend on those market conditions. For now, his comments point to an early signal he considers noteworthy, rather than a confirmed change in the market’s direction.
