Arthur Hayes has posted a new article today, August 5, 2026, on X called “Situationship”, where the co-founder of BitMEX, shares his latest take on the AI industry, the crypto market, and the global economy. In this essay, Hayes claims that the market is getting it wrong when it comes to all the money being invested into artificial intelligence. Investors tend to see AI spending as pure high growth tech investment, but for Hayes, it actually looks a lot more like a real estate play.
In his X post, Arthur Hayes says this distinction matters because it changes how we should look at the risks. Financial institutions and governments keep backing a rapid buildout of AI infrastructure, and if they keep going, he warns, we could end up with massive overbuilding.
Moreover, if that happens, Hayes thinks, the AI bubble could pop and it would not look like the dot-com bust in 2000, but more like the credit crash of 2008. Even so, he thinks this situation is likely to set up a positive environment for Bitcoin and the wider crypto space.
Arthur Hayes Compares AI Investment to Real Estate Development
In “Situationship”, BitMEX co-founder, Arthur Hayes explains that investors see the trillions going into AI as tech capital expenditure (CAPEX), but in reality, he says, that money is mostly building data centers, power plants, and all the infrastructure AI needs to run.
Investors treat these big spendings like they deserve the high growth valuations normally given to technology companies. Hayes argues that it is really physical infrastructure investment, even if it is aimed at facilitating advanced computing and AI training.
Hayes points to the line between tech and real estate as a big part of the AI bubble story. Banks, hedge funds, private credit funds, and governments keep trading data center deals like they are lending to successful tech companies. In reality, Hayes sees them more as giant real estate construction projects.
He also says financial intermediaries are getting support from the US and China, which helps keep the funding coming in for massive AI infrastructure projects. As a result, he believes too many data centers and supporting facilities could be built.
Because of all this, Hayes argues the AI bubble is more of a credit issue, just like 2008, not an earnings story like the dot–com bust in 2000.
Arthur Hayes Expects Bitcoin and Ethereum to Benefit After the AI Bubble Bursts
According to the article, even though Arthur Hayes expects the AI bubble to burst, he thinks the aftermath could be good news for crypto fans. In his view, when the bubble bursts, central banks are likely to respond by introducing another round of large scale money printing to support the economy.
Arthur Hayes says this flood of liquidity could spark a strong market rally for Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market. More money in the system tends to create a friendlier environment for digital assets.
Looking at Bitcoin, Hayes expects it to hover between $60,000 and $70,000 for a while. He sees potential for a downside to $50,000 before things move higher. Based on this outlook, Hayes says his family office, Maelstrom, has already picked up a significant amount of Bitcoin.
He is watching Ethereum too, calling it the next big shot in the crypto space. Hayes says the next altcoin wave over the next six months will focus on Ethereum.
In the post he has also predicted the price of ETH token, which is $5,000 by the end of 2026. However, he did not get into all the details behind that number but he surely identified Ethereum as the cryptocurrency that he expects to lead the next phase of the altcoin market alongside a broader recovery driven by increased liquidity.
