- Donald Trump said he will investigate whether federal employees are using confidential information to place bets on event-based platforms, citing concerns over prediction markets.
- US soldier Gannon Ken Van Dyke has been charged with insider trading after allegedly using classified details from a military operation targeting Nicolás Maduro to make over $400,000 on Polymarket.
- The Commodity Futures Trading Commission and federal prosecutors have launched parallel actions, marking one of the first cases involving insider trading tied to event-based betting markets.
US President Donald Trump has said he will look into whether federal employees are using inside information to place bets on event-based platforms. His remarks come as authorities follow a high-profile case involving an active-duty US soldier accused of profiting from confidential military details.
Donald Trump Warns Against Federal Betting
The case is around Gannon Ken Van Dyke, who has been charged by US regulators and prosecutors. According to officials, Van Dyke used classified information linked to a military operation targeting Nicolás Maduro to place bets on the prediction market Polymarket. The trades reportedly made more than $400,000 in profit from an initial stake of nearly $33,000.
The allegations have raised doubts within the government about how sensitive information may be misused in financial and betting markets. The issue has also drawn attention to the rapid hype of prediction platforms, where users wager on real-world events.
Speaking to reporters, Trump confirmed he would examine the matter. “I’ll look into it,” he said, while noting that he has long held reservations about event-betting platforms. He added, “Well, you know, the whole world, unfortunately, has become somewhat of a casino.” He also said, “I was never much in favor of it. I don’t like it conceptually.”
The controversy is happening at a time when several well-timed bets have fueled a sense of potential insider exposure in connection to geopolitical events. There is reportedly some proof to suggest that suspicious trading movements in relation to US military actions in countries such as Iran and Venezuela, have been detected resulting in some speculation.
In an internal advisory for staff, the White House recently advised against using sensitive information in any market activity.
Regulatory action against Van Dyke has moved forward on multiple levels. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has filed a civil complaint in federal court. The agency accused Van Dyke of breaching the Commodity Exchange Act by involving in insider trading using nonpublic information from a classified operation known as “Operation Absolute Resolve.”
According to the complaint, Van Dyke was directly involved in planning and executing the mission. This gave him access to sensitive details about the operation targeting Maduro and his wife. Officials say he used this information between late December 2025 and early January 2026 to buy more than 436,000 “Yes” shares tied to a contract predicting Maduro’s removal from office.
The regulator is seeking financial penalties, repayment of gains, and a permanent ban on trading activities. It has also asked the court to impose restrictions on future market participation.
Michael S. Selig, chairman of the agency, took a firm stance on the case. He said, “I have been crystal clear that anyone who engages in fraud, manipulation, or insider trading in any of our markets will face the full force of the law.” He added that the accused had access to confidential information and used it in a way that risked national security.
David I. Miller, director of enforcement, also commented on the matter. He said that all members of the government, including service members, owe a duty of trust and confidentiality to the government and the American people. He further stated that the defendant’s actions placed lives at risk and marked a serious breach of duty.
In parallel, the US Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of New York has unsealed criminal charges against Van Dyke. These include wire fraud and unlawful monetary transactions. Authorities have described the case as one of the first involving insider trading linked to event-based contracts.
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